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Spring confidence isn’t a strategy: What the seasons do to your investment decisions

Why a good investment plan should outlast changing moods and seasons

by Ainsley Mackie, Portfolio Manager, Verecan Group

There’s a moment every spring in the Kootenays where things just feel…easier.

The days stretch out. The air softens. People come back to life a little. And without really noticing it, that shift starts to influence how we make decisions, including the financial ones.

Dr. Lisa Kramer, the Verecan Chair in Behavioural Finance, has spent years studying how seasonal changes affect investor behaviour. Her research shows a pretty consistent pattern: when daylight increases, people tend to take on more risk. When it fades, they pull back.

It’s not a conscious thing. It’s a shift in mood that quietly changes how confident we feel.

Why spring is the risky season

By April, most of us feel better than we did a few months ago. That alone isn’t a problem. The issue is what comes with it.

More confidence can feel like clarity. Like things are lining up. Like it might be a good time to act.

But according to Dr. Kramer’s research, part of that confidence may have nothing to do with markets at all. It may just be the result of longer days and a bit more sunlight.

So spring doesn’t just bring better weather. It can also bring a higher tolerance for risk.

A Kootenay reality check

This probably hits a little closer to home here than we think. Our winters are long enough that the shift into spring is noticeable. By April, people are ready to move forward, in life and in decisions. That includes money.

We see it every year. After months of being cautious, people start to feel more comfortable. Markets don’t feel quite as intimidating. Sitting still feels harder.

Same plan. Same long-term goals. Different season. Different instinct.

The problem with “it feels like the right time”

Spring has a way of making things feel like they’re coming together.

“I feel better about the market.”

“It seems like a good time to make a change.”

Those thoughts sound reasonable. But Dr. Kramer’s work suggests we should pause for a second.

If your confidence is being influenced by the season, it might not be tied to anything that has actually changed.

And that’s usually where things drift. Not through big, dramatic mistakes, but through small adjustments. Taking on a bit more risk. Tweaking a plan that was working, just because it doesn’t feel as compelling anymore.

What actually works

A good investment strategy should still make sense in January and in July. It should hold up when you’re feeling cautious and when you’re feeling confident.

That’s harder than it sounds, because it means ignoring signals that feel very real in the moment.

This is where discipline comes in. Not reacting to headlines or seasons, but sticking with a plan that was built around your actual life, not your mood on a given day.

Where Verecan fits in

Our partnership with Dr. Kramer isn’t theoretical. It’s part of trying to better understand how people actually behave, not how we wish they would.

Verecan Group funds Dr. Kramer’s research to help better understand how these patterns show up in real life. Because if you know when people are most likely to drift, you can build something that helps keep them on track.

Seasonal shifts are one of those patterns. They don’t make investors irrational. They just make them human.

The goal isn’t to eliminate that. It’s to recognize it before it quietly starts influencing decisions.

Final thought

Spring in the Kootenays is a welcome change. It should feel good.

Just don’t confuse that feeling with a signal about what to do with your money.

Because confidence comes and goes. Your investment strategy shouldn’t.

About Ainsley Mackie

Ainsley Mackie, Portfolio Manager, is part of the team at Verecan, where she helps cut through financial jargon with a clear and candid voice. Her thoughts have been featured in national outlets including the Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, and the Toronto Star. In 2020, she received Wealth Professional Magazine’s Award for Excellence in Philanthropy and Community Service, recognizing her ongoing contributions to community and charitable initiatives. Ainsley brings the same approachable style to her work that she does to life in the Kootenays, keeping money matters grounded, human, and practical.

Read more jargon-free financial advice from Ainsley

 

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